BCNETwork News

June 2007

Advanced Technology Improves Weather Predictability and Public Safety

by Cynthia Potvin

The success of recent technological advances have enabled weather forecasting scientists to provide more accurate data about forest fires, floods, avalanches and windstorms, while enabling authorities to help better prepare high-risk areas and potentially save lives.
This is the mission of the Geophysical Disaster Computational Fluid Dynamics Centre (GeoDisaster Centre). Driven by UBC researchers, the centre is leveraging technology to deliver more accurate weather data to national and provincial forecasting agents, helping Western Canada prevent and prepare for disasters that would otherwise have devastating effects on people, the landscape and the economy.

Harnessing the power of high performance computing (HPC) over advanced networks, the GeoDisaster Centre can now deliver real-time numerical weather prediction for the mountainous and coastal terrains of Western Canada. HPC provides the power to analyze massive quantities of data and study the fluid-dynamical processes that govern weather-related disasters.

Today, the centre is capable of delivering weather forecasts with increased accuracy and spatial resolution, an improvement made possible by a massively parallel Beowulf cluster named Monster. Typically, this HPC runs two daily forecast models that produce 100GB of local data, roughly the equivalent of 20 full-length DVD movies. Of this acquired data, 50GB gets post-processed and tailored into valuable meteorological information, such as graphs and maps, which are then shared with federal and provincial agencies, researchers and commercial clients through BCNET’s advanced network.

Collaborating for Public Safety

The GeoDisaster Centre works in conjunction with all levels of government to share information and prepare the public for disastrous events that could negatively impact the economy of Western Canada. On a national level, the GeoDisaster Centre collaborates with the country’s leading authority for weather forecasting, the Meteorological Service of Canada, part of Environment Canada. Regionally, the centre shares data with provincial organizations such as the BC Ministries of Transportation, Forestry, and Solicitor General and Public Safety. For example, the centre’s ability to predict small to large-scale wind patterns that steer forest fires and alter flame-front propagation helps the Ministry of Forestry fight fires more safely. The ability to more accurately predict rain and mudslide patterns also prepares communities like the ones in BC recently impacted by the flooding of the Fraser River.

The data output of the GeoDisaster Centre, often applied to other weather forecast studies, produces a much more accurate – and timely – prediction. It can extend the ability to forecast weather phenomena, such as avalanches and heavy snowfall, by one day farther into the future than is currently being done by other forecasting centres. This not only helps communities prepare for public safety but also serves commercial clients such as ski resorts and snow removal operators.

Ensemble Forecasting and Fine Grid Resolution

Accomplishing this leading-edge work at the GeoDisaster Centre requires both ensemble and fine grid resolution forecasting. Ensemble forecasting combines several numerical forecasts to produce an average estimate, providing the most accurate and best estimate of the weather, explains Roland Stull, director of the GeoDisaster Centre and professor of Atmospheric Science at the UBC Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences. Fine grid resolution forecasting, which is a forecasting method that uses more tightly spaced grid points to capture even smaller scales of motion, creates far more accurate and specific predictions needed for mountainous Western Canada, but requires intense computational ability that can only be delivered over advanced networks.

For instance, it takes 120 processors and 12 hours to provide a two-day prediction from just one of the weather prediction models. To deliver its full data output, the centre runs four computer models a day and uses BCNET’s high capacity network to collaborate with other HPC centres, such as Westgrid in BC and RCQHP in Quebec. Adding to the complexity of working in a field where literally every minute counts, effective collaboration requires the timely exchange of data over the network. Explains Stull, “For real-time research, we must pull the data over in real-time or within a very short time of being produced.”

On the Horizon

Through providing timely meteorological information, the GeoDisaster Centre plays a pivotal role in helping BC both economically and socially, enabling communities to make critical decisions in preventing weather-related losses. The BCNET advanced network, paired with HPC technology and driven by researchers at UBC, provides the backbone to help deliver these tools to community and commercial institutions. Here we see that technology, applied research and collaboration are truly building a new horizon for increased public safety and disaster preparedness across the province.